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Saturday, August 26, 2006

TMBC Demography

The above chart, when looked at with some awareness of the next two and other data encountered, is very meaningful. It reflects the percentage of the average worship attendance to the reported Resident Membership of each church. Oakmont, the only church of the 5 to experience growth over last 4 years, has the largest percentage by a sizable margin, though their percentage seems to be moderating. The substantive meaning of the percentage is NOT that Oakmont has a higher percentage of members attending, BUT they have more guests attending. It is from attending guests that growth occurs. The chart suggests Arlington currently attracts few guests. The other 3 churches and the combined total are clustered ina declining trend, which is consistent with their reported lack of growth.

This chart shows the reported numbers for the 5 churches as of the the 2005 reporting date. In addition it shows the total for the combined 5 churches. This total is more important than any of the individual churches.

This chart shows the number of Resident Members for each of the 5 Greenville Baptist churches over a span of 29 years. Notice the number for TMBC on this chart is greater than we have reported elsewhere. That is to make the TMBC number more comparable to the data available from the other churches. Comparatively we can see one indicator of the relative size of the 5 churches.

The above graphics correctly reflect "Net New Members" and "Gross New Members Over 18" for the years 2000 - 2005. Visually, however, the Net New Members chart conveys a decline over the five years since 2000. When new members under 18 are eliminated and the metric is Gross New Members a different visual picture (and functionally more correct) is shown. Essentially we had modest, but consistent, increase in adult new members for 2000, 2001, and 2002, followed by a decrease in 2003, 2004, 2005.


Gene Prescott said...

Regarding the modest decrease for 2003, 2004, and 2005, there have been several identifiable events that have likely had impacts:

From April 2003 through March of 2004 the senior minister at TMBC was also moderator of the Cooperative Baptist Fellowship of North Carolina, a position that entailed significant time and travel.

In August 2003 the leadership of the Outreach Team changed and for a number of subsequent months the Friendship Pads were not used during worship to collect information of members and guests.

In October 2004, the senior member resigned to become Executive Director of CBFNC. The position of senior minister has not been filled as of March of 2006.

Gene Prescott said...

It has now been ascertained that the date of the leadership change of the Outreach Team was August 2002 rather than August 2003 as indicated in originating comment.