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Sunday, October 16, 2005

Planned Categories of TransBeCosm Articles

  • Institutional:
  • Religious:
  • Church As A Vehicle posted May 10, 2004, Updated February 17, 2006






















































































Life Cycles and Stages of Organizational Development posted May 10, 2004



An Example of Re-Balancing posted May 13, 2004

It is one thing to "talk" about re-balancing, it is another thing to actually do it. The Memorial Baptist Church, originating in 1827, has effectively re-balanced multiple times over its 179 year life-span. TMBC, currently healthy and vibrant, completed a new re-balancing plan entitled "Focus on Tomorrow Planning Report" during 2004. This example is not purporting to be a model to be adopted by other churches, but rather of a process developed while attempting to keep Vision, Relationships, Programs, and Management in optimum syncrhonization.

On Acceleration posted May 9, 2006



The above chart is by Ray Kurzweil. The dots on the curve represent specific, significant events in computing through the date of the chart. The two bold lines have been added to add emphasis that it will only take 20 years for the change rate of progress from 1960 to 2005 to move from 10 to 8th power to 10 to 15th power, or from equivalancy of an affordable insect brain to an affordable human brain in terms of computing power.

On Acceleration posted May 14, 2004















The above graph is from data extrapolated from the history of TMBC published in 2002 written by Hugh Wease. If Kurzwelian type of acceleration happens (exponential rather than linear) then the green line at the top of above chart would go completely vertical, and consequentially the TMBC line, in 10 to 20 years, is apt to follow it.
















This is the same data represented by a rate stated as MPH (miles per hour). So TMBC crept along at a leisurely rate until the 1960s and has been experiencing an acceleration ever since. One aspect of "going faster" is that it makes it necessary to look further down the road than was required when everything was moving slower.


















The above compares the TMBC MPH rate with a similar rate of technological events extrapolated from Ray Kurzweil's "The Age of Spiritual Machines." Since then Kurzweil has predicted an even greater rate of accleration starting about now and leaving us breathless by 2020.









On Leveraging/Balancing Strengths posted May 14, 2004

On Pitt County, North Carolina, Maps posted February 19, 2006
















Professional organizations:

Other:

Professional:

Modes of practice

Organizations

Education and qualifications

Other

Business Entities:

Professionals

Others:

Manufactoring

Biomedical

Services

Other

Social:

Political/Government

Personal

Recreational

Other

Clearly there will be overlaps between various categories. Additionally, categories may change and be intra-linked.

There is not apt to be an over-abundance of original thought embedded in these articles. However, these thoughts are apt to have been influenced by specific, named persons, over time. A categorized listing of such individuals appears here.

Preamble to Understanding the TransBeCosm

This Preamble to the evolving series of articles on Understanding the TransBeCosm serves multiple purposes. First, it identifies the single most catalyst as to why the TransBeCosm is happening. And secondly, it provides a generalized and categorized outline to the series of articles.

Just as various technologists such as Gilder have coined words to describe their notions (paradigms), so do they periodically create "laws" ... such as Moore's Law. One of the most prolific of these is Ray Kurzweil whose Kurzweil's Law is essentially the "law of accelerating returns." Kurzweil notes distinctions between order, data, and information. Order, while requiring information, goes beyond sheer information and requires information that fits a specific purpose. There is more to evolving order than increasing complexity. Deeper order is actually sometimes achieved through simplification (though not yet proven via the US tax code.) New ideas that bind together disparate ideas into a more coherent theory reduces complexity while increasing order for a purpose. The key is defining the problem, not whether new order is more or less complex.

The problem, or the catalyst for the entire TransBeCosm, is the rate of change. Essentially, when old systems cannot accommodate the ever increasing rate of change, new systems emerge. The evolution of technological change does not occur within a closed system, but takes place amid great chaos, depending on disorder in its midst, from which the options for diversity appear. As process continually prunes choices, greater order evolves.

A primary reason for technological evolution speeding up is that it builds on its own increasing order. Kurzweil notes that "innovation created by evolution encourages and enables faster evolution." Innovation is multiplicative more so than additive. Being multiplicative means we sometimes experience exponential increases. Kurzweil summarizes:

"An evolutionary process is not a closed system; therefore, evolution draws upon the chaos in the larger system in which it takes place for its options for diversity; and evolution builds on its own increasing order. Therefore, in an evolutionary process, order increases exponentially."

Thus, for instance, not only is the power of chips doubling approximately once a year, the number of chips being manufactured is growing exponentially, often reducing the cost per chip.

One consequence of more expansive power becoming increasingly affordable is frequent disconnects between the old ways and the new ways. Stated differently, some things or some persons are rendered obsolete. For instance, religious institutions have to loop back and come again or be displaced. The looping back is a form of deconstruction. The looping back allows discovery of new balance between principles enabling new opportunities for exponential increase.

The process has continuously accelerated. There was little technological change in a thousand years before the year 1000. Then paradigm shifts began requiring only a hundred years or so. By the nineteenth century there was more technological change than in the previous nine centuries combined. In the first twenty years of the twentieth century there was more advancement than in the entire nineteenth century. The technological progress of the twenty-first century will be more than the two-hundred previous centuries, or a thousand times more than the predecessor century.

Yet, many think the last seventy-five to one hundred years (maximum lifetimes of currently living persons) will never be duplicated, when it is more likely to increase one thousand fold! These folks will experience overwhelming disruption.

Many others think we are in a continuum of change but at the same rate that they can personally recall, when it is more likely to increase one thousand fold! These folks will experience significant disruption.

Even those who embrace the accelerating rate of change will experience disruption because some of a thousand fold increase in change is beyond our collective imaginations.

A listing of the planned categories of TransBeCosm articles will follow..

January 13, 2004

Saturday, October 15, 2005

Understanding the TransBeCosm


Understanding the TransBeCosm
By Gene Prescott








In the realm of technology George Gilder has coined at least two words, “microcosm” and “telecosm.” Each word became the title of books authored by Gilder and have been referenced by Gilder and others numerous times in published articles. Essentially Gilder created the words to describe eras in technological evolutions. While their meaning is sometimes misunderstood, they actually mean whatever Gilder ascribed to them. This treatise is not as much about those meanings as about the advantage of coining a new word to describe a transition, progression, or era.

In religious denominational circles the words, “modern,” “post-modern,” and even “post, post-modern” have been used to describe such as it relates to church. There are rampant misunderstandings about what each mean. Using words with existing meanings seems to compound the frequency of misunderstanding.

There are similar transitions occurring in nearly every aspect of life, many of which have yet to be “named.” Professional associations, for instance, are in a period of transition. So is the distinctive nature of many existing professions whose members comprise professional associations. Similarly, transitive disruptions have been delineated by Clayton Christensen in his two books, “The Innovator’s Dilemma” and “The Innovator’s Solution” as they relate to the business world.

While Gilder’s microcosm and telecosm are centric to these progressions, that is, technology ultimately is driving the changes, these evolutions, collectively, are broader than either of those terms. Gilder, in his December 2003 edition of the Gilder Technology Report, states, “In the next year …. We will see a decisive move of the telecosm into the microcosm and the microcosm into the telecosm.” Hence, Gilder is indicating an overlapping and enveloping process of his own created words.

I think of these evolutionary transitions as being comprised of, “transcendences,” “transformations,” “being,” and “becoming” in a continuum process. So I’ve coined my own word, TransBeCosm, to describe everything and everyone being TRANSformed into new BEings in a COSMic continuum. The TransBeCosm is not only about technology but about all of the consequential impacts of technology.

I am planning a series of articles describing the various ways the TransBeCosm is impacting our individual and business lives. So you may want to check here periodically as the TransBeCosm unfolds.

December 18, 2003


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